EMGC study: PH, BN and Amirudin Shari remain the choice of the majority of Selangor voters
ASTRO AWANI
August 6, 2023 07:15 MYT
EMGC study: PH, BN and Amirudin Shari remain the choice of the majority of Selangor voters
EMGC believes that PN still has the potential to win the Selangor State Election (PRN), if they succeed in meeting two critical conditions.
KUALA LUMPUR: The alliance and strategic cooperation of Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Barisan Nasional (BN) in Selangor, as well as their preferred candidate for Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari, is seen to be still ahead of voters in the state.
According to the Selangor Malay Voter Opinion survey conducted by Endeavor-MGC (EMGC), 76 percent of the multi-ethnic study participants in the 34 marginal seats of the Selangor State Legislative Assembly (DUN) agreed that PH should retain Amirudin as MB, while 69 percent of the Malay study participants in the marginal seats also have the same view.
However, EMGC is of the view that Perikatan Nasional (PN) still has the potential to win the Selangor State Election (PRN), if they succeed in meeting two critical conditions.
"The first condition is that PH and BN Malay voters who are very uncommitted switch to PN thus reducing Malay support for PH and BN to about a third of all Malay votes.
"These voters are those who feel, before the PRN election campaign, they will vote for PH or BN, but the same voters also disagree and/or are disappointed with PH and BN on issues of race (Malay rights/position), religion and cost issues living.
"The second condition is that the Malay turnout percentage must be 20 percent or more than the non-Malay turnout percentage, for example, if the Malay turnout percentage is about 85%, the non-Malay turnout percentage should be about 65%," according to the study. that again.
EMGC believes that PN still has the potential to win the Selangor State Election (PRN), if they succeed in meeting two critical conditions.
EMGC believes that PN still has the potential to win the Selangor State Election (PRN), if they succeed in meeting two critical conditions.
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The survey was conducted on 1,068 study participants of various races through a stratified random sampling method, in 34 marginal seats of the Selangor state assembly with a total population sample of 2,006,569 voters, and 724 Malay study participants with a total population sample of 1,359,683 voters.
EMGC said, projections from analysts have shown that it has happened before in other state elections, for example – Johor 2022 PRN which saw Malay turnout estimated to be about 25 percent more than non-Malay turnout.
He added that PN has shown effectiveness in the 2022 General Election campaign when it managed to capture the Malay support block especially from BN, and also from new voters.
"Although a focused and somewhat divisive campaign based on race, religion and the cost of living crisis could see the PN garner enough Malay support to fulfill the first condition, it is not clear what the PN can do so that it also achieves the second condition.
"Given that PN needs both conditions to be met to win the state, and referring to the latest survey of Selangor's Malay majority state assembly seats (34 state assembly seats), it is likely that PH & BN will remain as the Selangor state government even with a simple majority," according to the study. again.
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