Who Has The Support of 112 MP's ( Simple Majority) To Become The 9th Prime Minister of Malaysia?

Now that Tan Sri Muhyiddin has resigned, the Billion dollar question is who is going to be the 9th Prime Minister of Malaysia. 

Let's do a simple count as of 17 August 2021, 8.00pm.

Again like before this is a rough estimate of where the 220 Members of Parliament stand  from what they have voiced out in the media and social media.

THE SIMPLE MAJORITY MARK - 112

The Lower House of Parliament has 222 seats fully, but two are currently vacant due to the deaths of their elected representatives. 

For a 222 seat Parliament, the candidate will have to have get the support of 112 MP's to attain a simple majority. (In case EC decides to do a by-election for the two vacant seats.)

1) Support for Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim

Pakatan Harapan -88

Pakatan Harapan (PH) leads the bloc solidly supporting  Anwar - DAP (42), PKR (35) Amanah (11) giving him-  88 MP's

Negotiations with Shafie Apdal:

If Anwar can make a deal with Shafie Apdal for him to be DPM only then  can he count on this bloc with Warisan (8) , PSB (2), UPKO (1), Independent (Muda) (1) and Independent (Simpang Renggam) -1  .

This will give Anwar another bloc of - 13 MP's  giving him a total of 101 MP's

It is not clear where Pejuang's 4 MP's stands, but they have a close relationship with Shafie Apdal and  only he can convince Tun Mahathir to support Anwar. (There is a huge question mark on who Pejuang supports after Mukhriz Mahathir's interview on Astro Arena a few minutes ago.)

This mean Anwar might have the solid backing of  only 101 MPs  and possibly 4 MP's from Pejuang, giving him 105 MP's

As such he badly needs the support of  7 or more MP's to make sure he gets  the 112 MP's required.

 He has a couple of options.

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Negotiate with GPS

One of the options is for Anwar  to negotiate with GPS and get the support of their bloc of 18 MP's, this  would take him over the 112 simple majority mark comfortably. 

This is easily said than done since GPS has been strongly supporting PN, especially after the state received some of  the oil royalties owed by the Federal Government before, during Muhyiddin's time as PM

Last Option - Negotiate Individually with MP's

The only other avenue for Anwar to get this 7 MP's,  is for him to negotiate with the them individually and hope he can convince MP's from The PN, PAS, GPS, UMNO Bloc to support him with a SD.

Do bear in mind that if he has made a deal with Shafie, then Shafie will also be negotiating with MP's to support the Anwar- Shafie team.

THE OTHER SIDE

On the other side are the 15 UMNO MP's who pulled back their support for Muhyiddin which led to his resignation.

They are  more likely to choose their own candidate. With the UMNO Supreme Council's stand of No Anwar and No DAP, it is unlikely they will ever support Anwar Ibrahim as a party en-bloc.

Has UMNO's Group Of 15 Made Peace With Ismail Sabri?

2) An UMNO Candidate for PM

If UMNO can select a candidate for PM that PN and PAS can accept then they will very easily go past the 112 mark.

It seems 4 names are being considered including Ismail Sabri and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah

PN without the UMNO's Group of 15 support will  leave it in no man's land, just like it left Muhyiddin.

UMNO on it's own cannot go far either, even with PAS (18) declaring support for an UMNO chosen candidate.

If UMNO can see eye to eye with PN , then Ismail Sabri (A UMNO VP) could get the nod over the other three. 

In any case the  UMNO - Ismail Sabri Bloc - (23), UMNO - Group of 15 Bloc - (15), PAS - (18), BN- (3) , GPS- (18) And PN - (38) must agree on one name. 

The UMNO Supreme Council will decide on that one name tonight by 9.30pm. 

If they can agree on one name the path for the this candidate to be PM is much easier than compared to for Anwar.

NEGOTIATIONS RIGHT TO THE END

You can bet negotiations will be going on till the very last minute. We will update the above as more media statements are made to reflect the latest situation.

All MP's  have to send their SD in to the the Dewan Rakyat Speaker by 4pm on 18 August 2021