Translate
04 November 2024
Why we may not know the winner of the US presidential election on Nov. 5
Why we may not know the winner of the US presidential election on Nov. 5
Reuters
03/11/2024
The winner of the razor-thin race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump may not be known for days after the polls close. - REUTERS/Filepic
THE U.S. presidential election will take place on Nov. 5, but the winner of the razor-thin race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump may not be known for days after the polls close.
As ballots are counted, one candidate may appear to be leading based on early returns, only for a rival to close the gap as more votes are tallied.
In 2020, some states experienced a "red mirage," in which Trump was leading on election night, before a "blue shift" saw Democrat Joe Biden overtake him, a phenomenon Trump used to amplify his false claims that the election was stolen.
Nothing untoward had occurred. Democrats tend to live in more populous urban areas, where counting votes takes longer. Democrats also have embraced mail voting more readily than Republicans after Trump's false claims that mail ballots are untrustworthy, and those ballots take longer to count than Election Day votes. Trump has both encouraged and criticized early and mail-in voting in 2024.
There are seven battleground states likely to decide the election, each with its own rules for handling and counting ballots. Here's what to expect on Election Day and beyond:
ARIZONA
Voting by mail is extremely popular in Arizona; nearly 90% of voters cast their ballots early, most by mail, in 2020. Election officials in Arizona can begin processing and tabulating mail ballots upon receipt, but results cannot be released until one hour after polls close.
Any mail ballots dropped off on Election Day itself cannot be processed until the polls have closed. That is often a sizable number – in 2022, those "late early" votes comprised one-fifth of all ballots in Maricopa County, the state's largest – and can take days to count.
The initial results on election night should be mostly early votes, which could favor Harris, before the numbers shift toward Trump as Election Day votes are tallied. They could move back toward Harris in the days to follow as late-arriving mail ballots are tabulated.
GEORGIA
Early in-person voting is popular in Georgia, where officials expect 65% to 70% of ballots to be cast at early poll locations. Absentee or mail ballots, which may comprise around 5% of the vote, can be processed - which includes steps such as verifying signatures - starting two weeks before the election, though workers must wait until Election Day to begin counting them.
All early votes – in-person and mail – must be counted and reported by 8 p.m. ET (0000 GMT) on election night, according to state law. Officials are aiming to have all votes, including those from Election Day, tallied by midnight.
Ballots from overseas and military voters will be accepted up to three days after the election if postmarked by Nov. 5. There were more than 21,000 such ballots requested, so an extremely close election might not be resolved until those votes are tabulated.
MICHIGAN
Since the 2020 election, Michigan has instituted early in-person voting for the first time and begun permitting jurisdictions with more than 5,000 people to begin processing and tabulating mail ballots eight days before Election Day. Smaller jurisdictions can do so the day before Nov. 5.
Officials hope those changes will allow the state to report results more quickly than in 2020, when mail ballots could not be processed in advance. That created a "red mirage" on election night, when the state's early counts of Election Day votes favored Trump. Biden eventually surpassed Trump on the strength of mail ballots, which took longer to tally. Trump falsely claimed he was the victim of fraud.
NEVADA
Nevada's slow vote counting in 2020 – news outlets did not call the state for Biden until five days after Election Day – launched countless memes, but officials say changes since then should speed up the process.
Most notably, counties were permitted to begin processing and counting mail ballots on Oct. 21. In addition, workers can start tabulating early in-person votes at 8 a.m. PT (1500 GMT) on Election Day, rather than waiting until polls close.
But Nevada still might not get called right away. Mail voting has grown popular in the state, and it is the only battleground that accepts late-arriving mail ballots.
Any ballot postmarked by Nov. 5 will still be counted if it arrives within four days. Those late ballots historically favor Democrats, so a shift toward Harris could occur as votes are counted after Election Day.
NORTH CAROLINA
Election officials start processing and scanning mail ballots ahead of Election Day. After polls close, the first reported results will likely be mostly mail ballots as well as early in-person votes. Election Day votes will be counted and reported throughout the evening, with full results expected by midnight.
Harris may appear to lead early thanks to mail ballots, while Trump could close the gap as Election Day votes are counted.
If the election is as close as polls suggest, the outcome in North Carolina may remain unclear for a week or more. Absentee ballots that arrive on Nov. 5, as well as ballots from overseas and military voters, are tallied during the 10-day canvass period that follows Election Day. In 2020, media outlets did not call North Carolina for Trump until Nov. 13, 10 days after the election.
PENNSYLVANIA
Perhaps the most important battleground, Pennsylvania did not have a clear winner in 2020 for four days after Election Day, as officials sifted through a huge backlog of mail ballots. The state is among only a handful that do not permit election workers to process or tabulate mail ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, which means it will likely again take days before the outcome is known.
With more Democrats than Republicans voting by mail, the early results – based on in-person Election Day votes – will probably show Trump ahead, but his lead will likely shrink as more mail ballots are counted.
That pattern in 2020 prompted Trump to falsely claim fraud. This year, a new law requires most counties to announce at midnight on election night how many mail ballots remain to be counted in an effort to forestall conspiracy theories.
WISCONSIN
Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin is among the few states that do not allow election officials to process or count mail ballots until the morning of the election, which means there can be a delay in reporting the results of those early votes.
In addition, many of the state's largest cities transport mail ballots to a centralized location for processing and tabulating. That can lead to significant batches of votes getting reported all at once in the early morning after polls close.
In 2020, Trump and his allies falsely claimed fraud after Milwaukee, the state's largest city, reported nearly 170,000 absentee ballots around 3:30 a.m. CT (0830 GMT), giving Biden a huge spike that moved him into the lead for the first time. But that increase was expected due to the way the city processes those ballots and the fact that Democrats were more likely to vote by mail. A similar pattern is probable in 2024.
Popular Posts - Last 7 days
-
Ringgit advances as domestic optimism offsets US rate concerns Bernama 18/11/2024 Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzani...
-
Sugar overload: A growing threat to kidney function Bernama 16/11/2024 Approximately 3.8 mln Malaysians suffer from chronic kidney disease, ...
-
Warga emas maut ketika tukar tayar kereta di LKSA Astro Awani 18/11/2024 Tindakan seorang lelaki warga emas menghentikan keretanya di bahu ...
-
Bursa Malaysia dibuka tinggi, jejaki kenaikan di Wall Street dalam tempoh semalaman Bernama 22/11/2024 Keseluruhan pasaran adalah positif, d...
-
Bung Moktar, isteri diperintah bela diri tiga tuduhan rasuah Bernama 18/11/2024 Bung Mokhtar dan Zizie tiba di Istana Kehakiman, Putrajaya, ...
-
Malaysia to become leading hub for green investments, drive sustainable growth Astro Awani 20/11/2024 Minister of Housing and Local Governme...
-
More than 800 million adults have diabetes globally, many untreated, study suggests Reuters 17/11/2024 A person receives a free blood sugar...
Popular Posts - Last 30 days
-
McDonald's E. coli crisis reveals why vegetable contamination is 'harder problem' than beef Reuters 26/10/2024 Fresh produce is ...
-
CNN CBS AP BBC US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS LIVE RESULTS: https://edition.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?elec...
-
Ringgit advances as domestic optimism offsets US rate concerns Bernama 18/11/2024 Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzani...
-
Kadar jangka pendek diunjurkan kekal kukuh disokong operasi BNM Bernama 04/11/2024 Hari ini, BNM akan menawarkan dua tender repo berbalik m...
-
Sugar overload: A growing threat to kidney function Bernama 16/11/2024 Approximately 3.8 mln Malaysians suffer from chronic kidney disease, ...
-
Lyia Meta, the first Malaysian singer nominated in the Grammy Awards Astro Awani 11/11/2024 Lyia Meta continues to strengthen her position...
-
TikTok gives assurance to cooperate with MCMC, BNM to address cyberbullying, scams Bernama 14/11/2024 PM Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim meeting w...
-
The King of Spain was mocked, pelted with mud and eggs by flood victims Agency 04/11/2024 07:15 MYT King Felipe VI (with an umbrella) is pr...
Blog Archive
-
▼
2024
(4354)
-
▼
Nov 2024
(585)
- Agong sambut Ulang Tahun Hari Keputeraan ke-66 ber...
- Dron pantau polis curi tulang main golf ketika ber...
- PDRM kutip lebih RM1 juta saman pada hari pertama ...
- Situasi banjir di Terengganu, Perak bertambah buru...
- Filem 'Abang Adik' menang filem terbaik di Los Ang...
- Kerajaan tanggung RM1.662 juta kos penerbangan law...
- Siasatan kes perolehan aset di luar negara keluarg...
- Bomb squad sent to London's Gatwick Airport after ...
- Doktor di Tuduh mengaibkan kehormatan seorang wani...
- Trump chose Pam Bondi as Attorney General
- Padah bakar bunga api, dua beradik didakwa di mahk...
- Harga minyak diunjur dalam julat antara US$65 dan ...
- Empat lelaki didakwa culik dua warga asing
- Ringgit teruskan momentum positif, dibuka tinggi b...
- Bursa Malaysia dibuka tinggi, jejaki kenaikan di W...
- Jho Low di Myanmar? PDRM Tiada Sebarang Maklumat -...
- Lelaki Myanmar mengaku bersalah korek mata
- Polis mengaku tidak bersalah curi barang kemas wan...
- Suspek kes buli UPNM mengaku tidak bersalah pijak ...
- RM20 'ayam goreng kunyit' restaurant owner fined R...
- Australia launches 'landmark' bill to ban social m...
- ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
- Selangor records 1,354 out-of-wedlock teen pregnan...
- Sindiket pengedaran, penjualan kad pemastautin tet...
- Polis minta bantuan orang ramai kesan dua remaja p...
- 25 tokoh wanita dipilih menerusi inisiatif PERANTI...
- ISTAF cadang kurangkan pengadil menerusi teknologi...
- Bank Indonesia beku akaun bank dikaitkan dengan pe...
- 10 projek berkaitan aeroangkasa bernilai RM500 jut...
- LHDN komited tingkat pematuhan cukai menerusi audi...
- US rejects ICC arrest warrant for Netanyahu, Galla...
- Pemergian Napie, Pemain Gitar Utama Kumpulan Spider
- Lebih 41,000 pendatang asing tanpa izin ditahan se...
- Tabung Haji lantik 37 syarikat sebagai pengelola j...
- Enam ditahan insiden kejar-mengejar Muar ke Jalan ...
- HRD Corp: KESUMA serah pihak berkuasa sisat, ambil...
- Netflix disaman atas isu penstriman pertarungan Ty...
- Court orders PDRM to complete investigations into ...
- Dakwaan rasuah: Siasatan terhadap ADUN Sabah diter...
- Polis tahan 3 pengawal keselamatan sembunyi RM200,...
- Dewan kecoh, Anwar terpaksa tinggalkan dewan
- Ernie Zakri memenangi Anugerah Soundtrack Sinetron...
- Mahkamah arah Tokio Marine beri jawapan kepada taw...
- Japan sets monthly record 3.31 mln visitors in Oct...
- Billionaire Gautam Adani of India's Adani Group ch...
- Macron’s X post in Malay sparks admiration among n...
- Son of Norway crown princess detained for one week...
- Malaysian man to be publicly caned at mosque for I...
- ‘Duk sibuk serang saya juga’ - Anwar jawab wawanca...
- Dua suspek kes rogol diburu
- 2TM: PDRM tawar pengurangan saman 60 peratus
- 45 pegawai, anggota polis ditahan SPRM bagi tempoh...
- Malaysia to become leading hub for green investmen...
- Trump taps former WWE CEO Linda McMahon as educati...
- i-Lindung: RM44.2 mln withdrawn from EPF Akaun Sej...
- Sons of Frenchman who organised mass rape of their...
- PM to officiate two years of MADANI government pro...
- Petugas AeroDarat didakwa kasari penumpang NTL di ...
- Why did the Education Ministry host Taliban-led de...
- Dato Ingat Dato Malaikat Ke, Padu Ayob Khan SOUND ...
- Suspek korek bebola mata disambung reman tiga hari
- Remaja langgar polis trafik dikenakan bon berkelak...
- TNG Digital lancar eKYC sepenuhnya hari ini
- Indonesia setuju serah Mary Jane Veloso kepada pih...
- Khalwat Berulang: Individu Pertama Dihukum Sebat D...
- Perbaharui lesen penjualan vape tidak akan dilulus...
- Insiden renjatan elektrik: Penggunaan semua soket ...
- Perolehan MyKad generasi baharu di fasa akhir - KDN
- Sejarah tercipta, Indonesia secara rasminya pasuka...
- 'Rujuk selesai, tunggu 2 Disember ini untuk mohon ...
- Komposer AR Rahman, isteri bercerai selepas 29 tah...
- Tun Daim dilepas, dibebaskan tuduhan gagal isytiha...
- Israel tawar AS$5 juta jika kembalikan tebusan
- 16 lelaki termasuk warga China ditahan disyaki ter...
- UEFA, FIFA kekal haramkan Rusia sertai mana-mana p...
- Ringgit dibuka tinggi berbanding dolar AS
- Pesara guru rugi lebih setengah juta ditipu syarik...
- Polis siasat dakwaan anggota peras ugut warga Arab...
- Pengusaha stesen minyak dibenar gajikan pekerja as...
- Imigresen selamatkan dua wanita Bangladesh disyaki...
- KPKT peruntuk RM51.55 juta untuk 233 inisiatif inf...
- Jho Low Berada Di Myanmar Dilindung Junta - Muhamm...
- Jumlah mangsa banjir di Terengganu meningkat, lima...
- KKM rangka super apps, tawar perkhidmatan kesihata...
- Negeri Sembilan tawar ansuran bayaran premium Kem ...
- Malaysia dipilih semula terajui Lembaga Pengarah S...
- Israel rompak 100 lori bantuan makanan ke Gaza
- 26.8 per cent of GISB children rescued in Selangor...
- Form Two student's fatal fall not connected to bul...
- Penggunaan sistem 'autogate' di KLIA tak kompromi ...
- Guru Ajaran Sesat Warga Singapura Dipenjara Enam B...
- Lebih 6,000 pegawai kanan, rendah polis dikenakan ...
- Pembelian ubat meningkat 30 peratus dalam lapan ta...
- Pengambilan vape haram berdasarkan keputusan Jawat...
- Ramai kanak-kanak GISB diselamatkan di Selangor ad...
- CAP hopes MOH heeds Pahang Sultan’s suggestion for...
- Malaysian fashion designer's creations go from Sli...
- Over 85 per cent of arrivals at KLIA clear immigra...
- ‘Crocodile of Wall Street’ sentenced to 18 months ...
- Arif Aiman & Tommy Mawat Digantung 3 Perlawanan, F...
-
▼
Nov 2024
(585)